This is a page for thoughts and links on investing. I do little investing, and don't advise on it. My money (what little there is) is all into entrepreneurial activity. At some point this will shift, so I pay attention to what should become a future career, managing the money I am currently trying to make. What follows are just some thoughts and links. Take it for what you will.
Update for 27 Dec 2013 - I've put together a portfolio and a plan for funding the portfolio. Should take about 7-10 years. Also, I ran across Wealthfront an exciting investment portfolio management with 75% fewer fees. More below. Also, here is a great post on a Freudian approach to investment analysis.
Update for 29 Nov 2013 - Now is the time to do what I will call Fantasy Investing with Side Bets, aka investing training wheels. What I propose is to build a fantasy portfolio of investments (for now and into the future), along with a thought-out system. Then every month acquire a small amount of this portfolio, again based on the system which also looks for time-based pricing opportunities. Over time I expect to learn what works and what does not, and also to slowly have an investment portfolio (this may take 10 years or so).
Thinkers and Analysts
- Marc Faber - tracking blog - Gloom Boom Doom report
- Interview with The Nation 05-10-12 on investments in Thailand and the world situation
- George Soros, read The Soros Lectures
- Jeremy Grantham (GMO), read Uncle Polonius
- Richard X. (Dick) Bove
- Michael Price
- Benjamin Graham
- Philip Arthur Fisher
- Peter Drucker, especially Management Challenges for the 21st Century where he discusses how innovation needs to be aligned with several strategic realities, otherwise it is not viable.
- Black Rock, and their products such as ETFs
- Saxobank - as a place to do trading/purchases of equities, etc.
These are for investing and also paying attention to how they work. Some of these are private.
- Apple - do this after price analysis
- DropBox - pre-IPO (as of 15-Sep-2012)
- Facebook - now a good deal (15-Sep-2012)
- Microsoft, especially as a dividend stock
- Rosetta Stone
- Red Hat
Food and Agriculture
These popular tech stocks are a little tricky when dealing with investing (vs. trading), and certain kinds of performance metrics are needed such as head-to-head cost-of-holding one vs. the other.
I firmly believe in Jeremy Grantham's approach to diversification and non-leveraged investing. Therefore there has to be some kind of diversification of the portfolio. Also, the idea is to stay away from trading vs. investing. So while news can prompt behavior, the behavior cannot actually shift the strategy, but be a part of it (unless the strategy has to be re-assessed).
There should be some kind of special pricing issue, that is value investing with undervalued pricing opportunities (aka Warren Buffett/Benjamin Graham).
Peter Drucker will bring extra dimensions to the analysis of stock, as well as the need to have a robust approach to dealing with currency issues (forex/cash holdings). Currencies also affect stock investment as well.
This is not from a trader's perspective where allocation follows market movements (though there may be some small amount of that), but rather where greater or lesser risk and opportunity may be:
- Stocks 45% (both established and IPO, e.g., Alibaba, Dropbox, Square; 2/3rds low risk, 1/3rd higher risk)
- Forex/Cash 25% (e.g., USD, THB, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD) including hedging tactics
- Collectables 15% (e.g., gold, wine, art)
- Experimental 10% (e.g., bitcoin, LAK, MMK, KHR)
- Insurance 5%
Wealthfront has an interesting business model and my intuition is that it will be quite successful. Basically it uses the same algorithms but replaces an investment adviser with a website. Awesome. I learned a lot just changing the risk profile and seeing allocations change. Some things bounced around so there is some kind of fuzzy logic going on, not a linear allocation. In any case, another option for some part of the investment, though it is more of a convenience/don't think about it option than active investment.